Thursday, 25. September 2008

GORENJE BRAND NAME

According to European Brand Institute the value fo Gorenje Brand is 445 mio EUR. 63 mio EUR more than last year:

gorenje-brand.png

Source: www.eurobrand.cc

It is interesting that Gorenje market capitalization, which stands at 388 mio EUR, is much lower than estimated value of Gorenje brand name.

Monday, 22. September 2008

OIL POKER

Last week almost below 90$, today even 130$. What is happening?

oil-5day-22092008e.PNG

Source: TradePort2

Almost nothing. Just a plan to bail financial industry which will destroy value of american $. And with that, all commodities are back in game:

oil-22092008e1.PNG

Source: TradePort2

Thursday, 18. September 2008

MARKET ANOMALIES

Volatility is high.  Investors are nervous. Panic is all aorund the market. But every story has two sides. And in these days there are market anomalies. One of the anomaly is registered in Croatian stock market, where market capitalisation of hotel complex Liburnia (LRH-R-A) dropped to 83 mioEUR.

lrh-18092008.png

 Source:www.zse.hr

This amount alone doesn’t tell the story. It is the comparison with the latest renovation of hotel Palace in Portorož.  Unofficially Istrabenz paid 100 mio EU for renovation. So when comparing Liburnia complex of 10+ hotels, villas and camp with this renovation sum simple question pops up: how come investors are pricing one hotel in Opatia (one of the top location in Adriatic region) for less than a 1/10 of renovation sum of one hotel in Portorož?

Liburnia still has it’s own problems, mainly regarding shareholder structure. But if these problems disapeare…

PS: I own sharesLRH and so does fund that we manage. And this is not a investment advise.

Wednesday, 17. September 2008

PRECIOUS ROCKET

On the day, when Goldman was poked, there came a light. Preciuos light. Silver and Gold are skyrocketing. It is interesting that Silver is not leading Gold by factor 2 or 3 (as it was on the way down). Silver rose 14% and Gold 11%:

gold-17092008-short-e.PNG

Source: TradePort2

 And so we are back in the game - above trend line:

gold-17092008e.PNG

  Source: TradePort2

Monday, 15. September 2008

KABUUM

American market dropped hard today. But it wasn’t the “winner”. And even American dollar was somehow strong.

dow-15092008e.PNG

Source: Tradeport2

Are investors  ignoring the fact that it’s mainly American financial institutions that are collapsing?

Monday, 8. September 2008

EURO FREE-FALL

Hard action in EURUSD trading last Friday did set some expectations for a little bounce. And indeed, we got it till 8am. But then came big move: almost 400pips downside move:

euro-daily-08092008e.PNG

FRE and FNM rescue did provide some guessing about weak dolar future (more saving, more printing), but traders obviously focused on broken trend line:

euro-longterm-08092008e.PNG

We are really close to test 1,4 or maybe even 1,39. But then again: we can get surprise rally anytime.

Wednesday, 3. September 2008

SILVER TWO WEEKS LATER

In the middle of August Silver tanked all the way till 12,1$ per ounce. There we found support which was also around the longterm trendline so the bounce was really expected. But as we can see today it was just dead cat bounce:

silver-03092008-st-e.PNG

Looking through technical analysis patterns there is probability that we’ll silver a bit lower (PT: 21$-16$=5$ => 16$-5$=11$, which happens to be a low witnessed one year ago), but there could be some resistance from trendline..

silver-03092008-e.PNG

There are lot of opportunities. But to pick the winning one we must act as Sherlock Holmes - apply logical and rational thinking.

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