Thursday, 30. October 2008

LIQUIDITY vs RECESSION

Liquidity is coming back on the market. But that doesn’t mean that companies problems are going away. Mass layoffs already started. What will be the impact on already weak consumption and consequently on corporate profits (see  Roubini).

It is the game in the town. Oversold areas are now gone, but will we visit them again?

Who knows?

Wednesday, 29. October 2008

50%

Nowdays we can see many jumps. Even ones that are over 50%. But even such jumps won’t reach highs that were in place:

vip-29102008e.PNG

Source: TradePort2

It will be interesting to see what the chart will look like in 6 months…

PS: we have VIP in mutual fund.

Monday, 27. October 2008

VOW!

It’s Volkswagen. Again, but this time more vicious:

vowge.PNG

Source: TradePort2

Fridays winners are todays losers. Shit happens. Nowdays very often….

Thursday, 23. October 2008

USDCAD AND COMMODITIES

Australia, Russia and Canada are purely commodity play. And when commodites crash, than we get this picture:

usdcad-23102008e.PNG

Source: TradePort2

It is clear that volatility is extreme. Eventually it will stop somewhere and there will be a nice pull back.

Wednesday, 22. October 2008

FX SWING

If we look at FX market, we can see increased volatility:

EURUSD: from 1,6 below 1,28 (20% movement)

EURJPY:  from 170 below 127 (25%+ movement)

USDCAD:  from 0,90 over 1,25 (almost 40% movement)

Plenty of opportunities to make a mistake.

Monday, 20. October 2008

OIL

Are we ready for bounce back.

oil-201008.png

Source:  TradePort2
Tuesday, 14. October 2008

-77%

OMX Iceland15 Index today. That’s the consequence of banks nationalization. Other shares in index didn’t felt the same pain.

omx.png

Source: Bloomberg

Monday, 13. October 2008

HOT

Stock markets today. Very impresive. DJIA up more than 950 points.

rocket.jpg

Let’s just hope that it won’t last only one day…

Thursday, 9. October 2008

KABUUM 2.

It appears that panic is spreading everywhere. Yesterday Ljubljana, today Zagreb and of course USA one hour ago.

djia-091008e.PNG

Source: TradePort2

What’s next?

Wednesday, 8. October 2008

MARGIN CALL ANYONE?

Investing these days seems similar as rafting. You can easily be shaken, in some cases even dropped out. Of course it helps you if you are in big boy club. Where the CEO’s are.

Slovenian managers (Intereuropa, Gorenje) bought shares at levels which are now relatively expensive. So the big question is, when will they get margin call?

Which bank has guts?

There are lot of opportunities. But to pick the winning one we must act as Sherlock Holmes - apply logical and rational thinking.

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