Friday, 28. November 2008

FRONT RUNNING AT GORENJE?

Looking at offical reporting from Gorenje at SEONET, we can see that managment was buying shares few days before company started buying own shares.

gorenje.png

 Source: Seonet

Bad timing or just practicing front running?

Wednesday, 26. November 2008

DJIA

Bad news but market is up.

djia-261108e.PNG

Source: TradePort2

Does this mean that investors are fully pricing all the pesimism?

Tuesday, 25. November 2008

USD GOING DOWN?

More plans, more printing. M3 is rising fast and for country with huge deficits, negative BDP and whole bunch of problems this should suggest that currency is losing it’s appeal.

 

eurusd-251108.png

 Source: TradePort2

But the real question regarding direction of EURUSD is, whether the EU is any better than USA.

Wednesday, 19. November 2008

TURKEY’S LIRA

Turkey’s central bank lowered benchmark rate from 16,75 to 16,25. It was an unexpected move that resulted in big swing:

eurtry-191108e.PNG

Source: TradePort2

In the last two months Turkey’s lira lost almost third against euro and more than a half against american dolar. What a volatility.

Monday, 17. November 2008

INSIDE INFORMATION

Pivovarna Lasko, politics and new working definiton of inside information.

New governmentm new seruprises?

Thursday, 13. November 2008

900+ MOVE

Today’s DJIA move from low to high.

Is this a reversal sign?

Thursday, 13. November 2008

CHEAP OIL

When oil was over 140$ per barrel almost everyone were talking about how oil is never going to be cheap again.  And then came recession and oil is back at 55$:

 

oil-13112008e.PNG

Source: TradePort2

Many airlines are not yet droping fuel surchage which was very popular half year ago. Obviously seven years long bull trend made a good foundation for hedging oil. But now rules changed. Many companies were crying because of high cost of commodities and energy but now they should benefit from this. Well at least they will compensate lower sales…

Wednesday, 12. November 2008

GOVERNMENT HELP

12 billion euros government guarantee. If we compare number with TARP or Chinese plan it is really a drop into the ocean. But if we look at market cap at Ljubljana stock market we can see, that on 31.10.2008 there was almost 11 billions euros worth of stocks:

kapitalizacija.png

Source: Ljubljanska borza

who will use bank guarantee? mostly banks which won’t be able to refinance their syndicated loans. It appears that next year we could see real problems in getting the liquidity.

Tuesday, 11. November 2008

EURUSD ON THE WAY DOWN?

Triangle broken:

eurusd-11112008.png

Source: TradePort2

If it’s not fake one, then we could see new lows. How will equity markets react?

Thursday, 6. November 2008

MERCATOR ON SALE

Pivovarna Laško will sale Mercator. First impression is that they are in deep trouble because they are selling Mercator. But if you look at selling criteria (price + Pivovarna Laško’s product placement) you can see that they can emerge as winner here: they could end up with good arrangement of placing their products on buyers market. With that they could easily double sales, lower debt and of course show everybody how to do business.

Time will tell.

There are lot of opportunities. But to pick the winning one we must act as Sherlock Holmes - apply logical and rational thinking.

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