I am not posting much…it’s new year time.

Source: artstyleonline.com

2009 will bring some fresh air. Problems will get solved. And I think, that Russia will be winner.

What do you think?

Oil wast trading below 35$ per barell on Friday, but today we saw prices that range from almost 43,5$ to 39,74$. It was just futures roll over:

Source: tradePort2

When picture tells everything:

Source: TradePort2

Any thoughts?

Last week Gorenje suprised us with profit warning. It looked unbeleivable becasue few weeks earlier they were telling different story. But Electrolux issued similiar warning. That shows us that Gorenje IR is doing good job.

Maybe they wouldn’t be so honest if they would know what kind of media reaction would they get. But to be fair, Gorenje story is complex one: on one hand they are buying shares (management and company itself) and on the other they are crying how things are worse (purposely for government help).

But Gorenje just shows us that situation in industry is getting worse. But not just in home appliance industry but also other industries. It is hard to predict what will happen. And when will financial markets improve. There is still liquidity problems which put investor to “cash is king” situation.

To keep long story short: shit happens, if you have holes in takeover legislation.  KD returned Istrabenz shares, so it’s the same situation as before summer AGM.It will be interesting to see the reaction of slovene SEC.

Game is only for big shareholders.

Support at 40$ and new projections that barrel will reach 25$ or even 10$ are good signs that fall is behind us. Short term at least. This correlates with $ depreciation (EURUSD is again above 1,3). Currently we can see two outstanding themes:

• recession influence on smaller demand,

• credit crunch influence on smaller capex.

Smaller demand is actual only during the recession. it will pick up as soon as recession is over. But when this demand pick’s up, there won’t be similiar pick up of supply. For that we need today’s capex, which oil companies are cutting back. So we are looking for supply-demand disequilibrium (excess demand).

Source: TradePort2

And when this happens, investors will load energy shares and energy currencies will again become stable one.

Finally arrived. Profit warning  annoucement. Which followed after share buyback and insider’s buying.

It will be interesting to see, if this buying continoues. But the real question is, which company will annouce next profit warning?

Few months ago, when inflation was every where, gold was shining. Now it appears as gold is forgotten. 

Source: TradePort2

To regain shine, some world currency  should collapse.

November was bad. It wasn’t just a 5 or 10% off:

• Toyota -34%
• GM -41%
• Ford -31%
• Nissan -42%
• Chrysler -47%

We will see similiar numbers in Slovenia/Europe. Good sign is also todays report about 1200 slovene trucks waiting for better time.