Pod Lupo

IT HAPPENS

matej — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:44:39 +0000

In USA and also somewhere else. Stock markets are climbing regardless the real situation. Deja’vu 2006 &2007? Anyway, maybe it’s boring to write about it again, but then, my personal portfolio is on the other side… so it’s normal that rising SP500 is every day pain:

Source: TradePort2

As we can see SP500 droped from rising wing, but it didn’t lose the rising trend. So, now we have it around major resistance (past peaks + 200 ma).

Source: TradePort2

We’ll see how it will work out. Soon SP500 will catch upside of rising trend channel. And then?

Who knows. Market can play it either way. My bet is SP500 under 800.

SP500

matej — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 19:47:06 +0000

Finally we got it. Escape from increasing wedge. On 15min chart:

Source: TradePort2

It is interesting how people are forgetting the unanswered question: from where will new jobs emerge? It is simple logic: no jobs = no consumption. No consumption = no speedy earnings recover. Plus we must add new bak diases: credit card hole. With high unemployment (over 10% in some parst of USA) we can expect more losess…

And about oil:

Source: TradePort2

Talking about weak demand…

BREAKOUT

matej — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:16:52 +0000

G20, FASB and much more. Are these breakouts real? DAX:

Source: TradePort2

DJIA:

Source: TradePort2

CHINA AND WORLD CURRENCY

matej — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 07:40:50 +0000

In the last few days we could notice, that investors focus on Geithner’s plan. But I think there was one more important message - China’s call for new world currency. It appears that China is leveraging it’s vast reserves in order to reduce importance of american dolar.

This is not a single call. In Davos we could hear Putin’s remarks about dolar monopolization.

Whatever outcome will be, there will be major FX moves. Be prepared.

KABUMM

matej — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 20:36:08 +0000

One more plan. And roaring times on markets again. Oil is up. Should do positive for all commodities currencies…

Is this the bottom? Cause, there is a ton of cash that is waiting for entering the market…

TURKISH LIRA IS GETTING CHEAPER

matej — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 19:26:12 +0000

And so are getting holidays in Turkey:

Source: TradePort2

When will be the right time to go?

GOLD

matej — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 19:27:00 +0000

Shortly after gold touched 1000$ per ounce we noticed 10% fall:

Source: TradePort2

We are still waiting for a sign, that will move gold above all time high. But as we can see rally relief extending we could also notice that strong demand from mid jan till mid feb disappeared. Maybe just till next big thing…

CORN

matej — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:17:20 +0000

It looks as no one is eating popcorn anymore.

Source: TradePort2

But we can draw paralles with oil and bio disel. Bio disel is now on hold because oil is affordable. But how long?

LONGTERM INVESTING

matej — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 19:46:09 +0000

Talking about longterm investing we shouldn’t forget about Japan. For the last 20+ years Japan investors are just watching mega collapse:

Source: TradePort2

And also Yen is changing it’s course…

TWO MORE TIMES

matej — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 21:28:22 +0000

and DJIA will be close to 6000 points.

Source: TradePort2

Where it will stop?